Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 206.999819 250.814811 304.844785 377.517176 474.515938 6.022316e+02 7.878707e+02
2025-06-29 157.349573 208.183377 278.940617 388.498252 561.554161 8.394892e+02 1.356329e+03
2025-07-06 126.090977 176.782848 253.373729 384.521410 620.050147 1.065577e+03 2.103332e+03
2025-07-13 113.325558 167.306936 255.191055 420.792325 759.114271 1.522743e+03 3.854533e+03
2025-07-20 103.165509 158.892248 255.458660 453.206952 907.823924 2.129180e+03 7.173269e+03
2025-07-27 94.191313 150.227847 252.550414 477.782790 1054.334150 2.891148e+03 1.353608e+04
2025-08-03 85.854040 140.910575 245.918810 491.817084 1184.743364 3.784193e+03 2.576781e+04
2025-08-10 78.079567 131.184072 236.180722 495.283882 1289.821539 4.765372e+03 4.948658e+04
2025-08-17 70.477772 120.562038 222.393692 484.346468 1345.165863 5.648446e+03 9.116871e+04
2025-08-24 63.912210 111.018609 209.120518 470.797159 1385.770545 6.576167e+03 1.759572e+05
2025-08-31 58.265856 102.565273 196.775431 456.283777 1416.347920 7.563071e+03 3.679028e+05
2025-09-07 57.094843 103.025517 204.633038 502.341087 1734.501601 1.196877e+04 4.375832e+06
2025-09-14 53.343939 97.795915 198.671257 506.544606 1882.990788 1.580158e+04 2.767865e+08
2025-09-21 50.702389 94.621890 197.205709 525.378805 2134.256142 2.319022e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.265954 89.276523 189.349523 520.106286 2252.364822 3.002491e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 46.558517 89.932822 197.141757 574.359314 2828.667663 6.024830e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 45.536606 89.720731 202.602543 623.272398 3480.447236 1.292291e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 44.130283 88.413925 204.775997 660.650164 4141.793714 2.905792e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 42.353621 85.994112 203.293325 682.109354 4725.757773 6.642387e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 40.312659 82.694990 198.629269 687.423194 5169.401094 1.503413e+06 NaN
2025-11-09 37.935356 78.319152 190.010131 670.677908 5321.410604 2.803541e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 35.682289 74.056857 181.158854 650.004703 5397.804876 5.263640e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 33.596869 70.042843 172.555295 627.949014 5427.395153 1.028958e+07 NaN